JUNE 2016 - MASTER GRADUATION

15 June 2016, SIDANG.

Alhamdulillah, dapet nilai 95. Thank you for my supervisor and Prof. Yang and Prof. Dai.
Sidangnya bertiga, sama Daphne dan Sheena. Both of them are nice, friendly, and helpful.
Sebenarnya proses persiapan sidang ini tidak begitu lancar, karena serba ngedadak. Esti sidang tanggal 15 June 2016, tapi revisi ketemu prof baru tgl 13, dan itupun hanya melihat dari abstrak, kesimpulan, dan daftar pustaka saja. Well, karena beliau orang jenius, beliau cukup tahu overviewnya aja (logika penelitian), karena beliau percaya untuk hal-hal minor kayak masalah grammar atau teknik penulisan esti bisa ngatasin sendiri.

Sebenrnya ada banyak banget yang esti lakuin di thesis ini, dan sebenarnya masih bisa disempurnakan, masalahnya adalah rasa malas dan waktunya juga, waktunya kurang.

That is why, banyak revisi (disuruh ngebedain ketika central bank beli forex dan ketika central bank jual forex, bikin grup developing dan developed, dan regresinya perbaikin). Malsahnya, kalo aku bikin jadi per grup lagi, bakal jadi lebih kecil samplenya, dan hasil regresinya juga mungkin tetap tidak bagus. However, still have a lot of things to do. FIGHTING!!





16 June 2016.  
15.00 PERCOBAAN PERSIAPAN PRESS CONFERENCE DIKTI-NYUST


19.00 DINNER DGN CLASSMATES DAN TEACHERS.
Telat dataaangg.. miannee :((




17 June 2016.
11.00 PRESS CONFERENCE DIKTI-NYUST
Kesan-pesan buat NYUST, ini acara khusus buat 9 mahasiswa Dikti di NYUST yang graduated tahun ini. Semacam sharing dan maintain relationship Dikti-NYUST-ESIT TAIWAN.


14.00 REHEARSAL GRADUATION CEREMONY
Mba kharis jadi perwakilan international student jurusan Design, esti yang dari jurusan Finance.
Ahhh, deg-degan..
Bapak yang jadi pengatur acara ini keliatan galak bagnet dan temperamen, marah-marah mulu sama pembawa acaranya session pagi tiap mereka salah, Ya iyalah yah, pasti beliau tertekan juga, soalnya acara graduation session pagi akan dihadiri oleh wakil presiden Taiwan. Makanya gaboleh ada kesalahan sedikitpun, dan semuanya pasti tegang, tingkat pengamanannya pun bakal ketat. Dia bilang sebelum masuk aula, yang hadir akan diperiksa satu-persatu.
Ketika pindah ke yang session sore (esti upacara wisudanya sesi sore), dia ga temperamen lagi. See, karena ketika session sore wakil presidennya udah pulang.


19.00 FAREWELL INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS



18 June 2016
11.00 ACARA PERPISAHAN SAMA JUNIOR
Dikasih boneka doggy hugable dan kerajinan tangan dari Daphe dan Sheena. Uuuhhh, they are so sweet <3 .="" p="">Kata Chien, setelah acara dinner tanggal 16 June lalu, mereka pergi ke pub, tapi Daphne dan Sheena pulang lebih awal dari pub, karena mau bikin hadiah buat esti.
Mereka print photo, gunting, dan lem, dan bikin kartu ucapan gitu di papan kecil gitu. aahhh,, sedangkan aku gabawa apa-apa. Untungnya banyak yang jualan boneka dan bunga, jadi aku bisa ngasih mereka.


13.00 GRADUATION CEREMONY
Entahlah, tapi menurut esti graduation ceremonynya superrr.. <3 nbsp="" p="">Esti sama kharis duduk agak di depan, soalnya kami akan naik ke panggung. Beda dengan di Indo, di Taiwan gasemua mahasiswa maju ke panggung buat dipindahin tali topinya. (Topi?? gataulah itu pokonya mah intinya).









Di tempat duduk itu, berasa antusisas, karena mungkin berasa pertama kali esti duduk tanpa ada temen sekelas di samping. Dan ketika berlangsungnya acara, esti baru sadar kalo orang Taiwan ternyata bodor. Contohnya, selesai acara speech dan nyanyian "YOU RAISE ME UP" (lampu dimatiin dan kita pake senter hp sambil nyanyi sambil goyanging tangan dan hp), banyak yang terharu, termasuk gue yang bercucuran air mata walo tanpa mengeluarkan suara. Eeehh,, cowo" dibelakang malah ngeledekin sambil bilang: "Huuuk Huuk HUUkk Huukkk....."
Dan gue ngetawain mereka, ternyata mereka bisa bodor juga. :D

19.30 DINNER HOTPOT
Yess, every week, makan hotpot..
Sekarang giliran esti sama aulia yang treat anak-anak.



19 June 2016
21.00 Surprise for Jennifer.
Ini yang bikin aku ngerasa bersalah juga. Jejen ngasih esti kado ultah, tapi esti belum nyiapin kado ultah :((. Esti kira dia ultahnya July, ternyata June :(.. Dia juga gasuka kosmetik, dan sukanya tas, baju. Masalahnya, esti udah gapunya banyak waktu buat keluar kota, sedangkan kalo beli di Douliu mah, gabanyak pilihan dan pasti ketauan beli dimana :(


20 June 2016.
19.00 Dinner dengan Chien, Vincent, Hank, Daphne, etc..
It was so much fun. We had so much laughed at that night.


21 June 2016
Karena masih puasa dan efek ngerjain deadline thesis, ya gitu tidur teh abis subuh. Tapi hari ini esti tidur dari jam 2 pagi ampe jam3. terus, malah nonton drama korea "Beautiful Gong Shim" dari ep 1 ampe ep 12. Coba kalo ada ep 13 ampe ep.20 udah release, pasti gue sekarang masih nonton drama itu XX.
Temen-temen di Douliu, tang asalnya mau stay selama lebaran di Taiwan, ternyata mereka mau pergi ke Jepang. Iya, emang lebih murah sih ke Jepang, tapi esti kurang begitu tertarik ke Jepang.
Dulu esti mikir wah pengen lah ke Korea, tapi entahlah sekarang, berasa, pengen keluar negeri itu enaknya sama suami, sama anak..
Iya, pasti bakal beda nanti udah di Indo mah. pasti ada banyak prioritas lain, but I don't know.. Should I go or not. Dari sini ke Jepang murah, bolak balik kurang 1 juta rupiah. Dan, dari Jepang ke Korea itu gaperlu visa. Entahlah, kemarin conference di Taipei juga esti abis 4juta, belum lagi sekarang esti harus ngeluarin 4juta buat ganti iphone yg rusak, mana kemarin juga . XX.
Hal yg esti pengen adalah Disney. Tapi nanti mereka ke Jepang juga ke Universal, bukan Disney.
Esti g ngebet ke Jepang atau Korea, esti ngebetnya ke London, Turki, pengen ke daerah yg summer juga masih berawa agak dingin wind-nya :D.  Kalo Mekah mah pasti, da kewajiban.
Udah dapet nilai, udah wisuda, berasa udah selesai. Padahal sebenernya still have a lot of things to do. Mulai dari revisi, ke jurusan, persetujuan perpustakaan nasional, baru bisa print dan jilid thesis, minta ttd ke Kaohsiung, minta ttd ke KDEI di Taipei, baru setelah itu bisa minta Galaxy Tour buat booking-in tiket pulang ke Indo, lapor ke Dikti di Jakarta, baru setelah itu boleh pulang ke Bandung.
FIGHTING! (bilangnya sih fighting, tapi setelah posting ini, gue bakal langsung cuci muka, masak nasi, solat, trus tidur). 1.30am Good night. 

Baca Selengkapnya »

Musim Salju di Taiwan 2016

Saljuu di Taiwaann,, yeaayy!!
Taiwan emang punya 4 musim. However, kalo kita pengen melihat salju, kita harus pergi ke gunung Hehuanshan. Salju cuma bisa dilihat di gunung ini.
Namun, gilanya, January 2016 ini jadi rekor buat Taiwan. Untuk pertama kalinya, salju turun di beberapa wilayah di Taiwan, bukan cuma di Hehuanshan saja. Tanggal 23 Januari jadi hari dengan suhu paling dingin di Taiwan, sejak 40 tahun yang lalu.
Ternyata, dinginnya udara bawaan dari China ini merenggut nyawa hampir 100 orang di Taiwan. Buat kita para siswa atau pekerja yang tinggal di kosan atau asrama, itu ga ada yang namanya penghangat ruangan. Winter ya winter aja, harus tahan aja, paling pake jaket tebel atau hand warmer.
Di tangggal 23 Januari itu, gue kebetulan udah ga tinggal di asrama. Gue tinggal di kosan, daaann jendelanya boloong :(. Penjaga kosannya belum bisa ngebenerin, jadi aja gue tempel pake kardus. Kebayang kan, betapa dinginnya 4 derajat celcius dengan kondisi jendela bolong yang cuma . ditempelin kardus :((. Keszeell -_- ,, akhirnya semaleman gue duduk depan kompor (berasa depan api unggun).

Walau wilayah gue ga kebagian salju, untungnya sebelum tanggal 23 Januari, gue udah pergi ke Hehuanshan buat ngenikmatin salju. Kalo gue ke Hehuanshan tanggal 23 Januari, udahlah mati gue ditiup badai salju :(.

Baca Selengkapnya »

Barang yang harus dibawa jika ingin kuliah di luar negeri

Mau wisata ke Taiwan?
Mau kuliah di Taiwan? Hmmpph.. pendidikan di Taiwan jelas lebih baik, mereka juga memberikan service yang lebih ke International students. :) dan lagii... negara yang terkenal dengan semikoduktor ini terkenal juga dengan tenaga pendidiknya yang udah ngeluarin berbagai paper top quality in the world. So, ayo datang ke Taiwan, belajarlah kepada ahlinya :)

Apa aja sih barang yang harus dipersiapkan sebelum pergi ke Taiwan?
>> Kamu harus pertimbangin dulu, lokasi yang kamu tuju itu di kota apa, kapan, dan sedang musim apa. Semester akademik pertama (September) dan kedatangan mahasiswa Internasionaldi Taiwan ini bertepatan dengan musim gugur. Jadi, pake jeans, kaos, jaket ringan juga udah cukup (kecuali buat di pesawat). However, kalo kamu datang di semester akademik kedua (tengah Februari) masih musim dingin jadi lebih baik bawa sweater hangat, kaos lengan panjang, dan jaket.
Jaketnya gausah alay kaya buat ngehadepin salju sih (pengalaman, jangan ngeberat"in diri sendiri pas di bandara dengan membawa jaket winter, soalnya ternyata Taiwan ga sedingin itu, ga da salju disini :/)
>> Bawa batik (Please, kamu International student dari Indonesia, harus bawa ini, yaa minimal 1 bolero batik).
>> Sepatu resmi (di Taiwan sepatu high heelsnya lebih mahal dibanding di Indo)
>> Adaptor listrik. Bawa aja yang universal. Disini Taiwan juga banyak kok yang jual, gausah bawa banyak-banyak. Toh, mungkin kamu gakan bawa banyak barang elektronik kan? Inget looh, elektronik di Taiwan lebih murah :), beli produk apple juga bisa dapet student discount.  :) Apalagi beli produk secondhand di facebook dari beberapa situs fb yang emang recommended, harga murah-barang bagus-masih ada garansi-bayar cod. :)
>> Bawa souvenir khas Indonesia. Bawa wayang, angklung, baju batik buat dosen (jaga" kalo nanti udah dapet thesis advisor). Bawa beberapa makanan kecil, untuk memperkenalkan snack Indonesia ke temen-temen kamu.
>> Bawa bekel makanan tahan lama (abon, telor asin, tempe mustofa, kentang kering, yaa semacam kaya gitulah). Kamu 2-3 hari ga terbiasa dengan makanan Taiwan, penyesuaian aja dulu, sambil cari-cari tempat makan yang enak. Karena saya Muslim, jadi saya keliling cari tempat makan vegetarian yang pas di lidah. :)
>> Fotokopi semua dokumen penting: paspor, visa, tiket penerbangan, dokumen asuransi, kartu kredit, kartu ATM, LOA. Pastiin juga kamu punya fotokopinya di rumah.
>> Bawa cukup uang tunai. Pertama kali saya datang ke Taiwan, saya tukarkan 800 USD ke NTD di bandara Taoyuan, Taiwan. Harga tukar terbaik bisa didapatkan di bandara saat kedatangan.
>> Bawa obat pribadi
>> Bawa suplemen/ vitamin pribadi. Taiwan ga ngebolehin kita bawa lebih dari 1,200 butir suplemen. Sewaktu saya mau beli ke amazon.com pun ternyata Taiwan tidak mengijinkan pembelian suplemen Amerika. Entahlah, jadi bingung:/ soalnya nyari di beberapa toko, suplemen yang saya inginkan ini tidak tersedia.
>> Bawa kosmetik pribadi.
>> Bawa makanan instan? Emm.. sebenernya tidak perlu, karena di setiap kota di Taiwan, ada toko Index yang menjual makanan dan kosmetik Indonesia. Pokonya, di setiap kota ada stasiun kereta apai, nah toko Index dan beberapa restoran Indonesia biasanya ada di dekat stasiun. Di toko Index ada bumbu Indofood, bumbu sinti, gorengan kacang, tic tac, biscuit, blue band, mie instan sedaap, mie instan indofood, kopiko, kopi torabika, susu bear brand, kopi kapal api, nestea, kacang garuda, ah banyak lah pokonya :). Untuk tempat makan Indo, ada di dekat stasiun juga, makan makanan Indonesia biasanya 100ntd-120ntd (sekitar 60 ribu).
>> Kalo kamu gabisa minta tolong temen di Taiwan untuk beliin kamu SIMcard, kamu bisa beli SIMcard di bandara. Make sure ketika kamu tiba di Taiwan itu masih office hours.
>> Ajarin keluarga kamu yang belum bisa pake skype atau media sosial lainnya. Cek provider yang bagus sinyalnya di rumah mereka. Supaya, nanti ketika kamu homesick, kamu bisa video call bareng mereka. :)
>> Ini yang paling penting nih. Pastikan e-banking kamu berfungsi dengan baik. Yang belum punya e-banking, harus cepetan diurus ke bank kamu. Dan jangan sampe ilangin token atau lupa password yah gaes :)
>> Bawa buku favorit dan buku yang kamu rasa bakal berguna banget buat kuliah. Misalnya, aku bawa buku Eviews, somehow ketika belajar otodidak, buku petunjuk untuk praktek dengan bahasa Indo lebih mudah dimengerti :3. Di sini gada buku prakteknya, cuma teorinya aja (gada buku praktek dalam bahasa Inggris). Nyari di google pun tetep aja baca buku lebih mudah dipahami karena lebih detail dan lengkap.

I think that's all that you really really need to know :)

Baca Selengkapnya »

Persyaratan membuat visa Taiwan untuk kuliah S1 S2 S3

Udah dapet LOA dari Universitas di Taiwan? Cuuss gaesss ke Taiwan!! Eits, sebelum booking tiket, visanya harus siap dulu. Jangan sampai udah hari-H, ternyata visa masih belum bisa keluar :(.

Ini nih yang harus dilakukan supaya dapet visa Taiwan:
a. Medical Check Up di Rumah Sakit yang ditentukan oleh TETO. 
Pertama, print dulu form medical check-up: http://www.roc-taiwan.org/public/Data/231516445471.doc 
Lalu datang ke salah satu RS dari 28 RS yang ada di list ini http://www.roc-taiwan.org/public/Data/2122716212871.doc
Kalo saya dan teman-teman saya karena tinggal di Depok, sehingga kami memilih An-Nur Medical Centre di Jl. KH. Abdullah Syafei No. 12 Tebet, Jakarta Selatan. Dari stasiun Tebet, belok kiri, lurus aja terus, ga jauh kok dari stasiun.
Nanti diambil darah, air pipis, dan maaf hasil buang air besar juga, terakhir nanti dikasih vaksin. (Karena kliniknya sudah mau tutup dan teman saya masih belum bisa buang air besar, maka botol kosongnya disuruh dibawa ke rumah :), besoknya dia kembali ke klinik)

b. Legalisir dokumen Ijazah (bhs inggris atau china), transkip nilai (bhs inggris atau china), hasil med-check. (Waktu itu saya legalisirnya di Kemenhukam Jakarta. Datang aja masuk ke sana, lalu duduk. Nanti ada Bapak" yang nyamperin lalu menawarkan bantuan untuk melegalisir. Gamau ribet ya mending pake Bapak itu aja lah yah :) toh dia juga notaris). Lebih baik barengan sama temen yang banyak, mungkin nanti bisa lebih murah.

Dokumen yang dibawa ini harus lengkap yang gaess :) , jangan ada yang kurang, ribet kalo bolak-balik. Ngantrinya juga lama lagi :/ apalagi jika banyak BMI yang mau ke Taiwan.

LANGKAH PERMOHONAN VISA TAIWAN UNTUK KULIAH:
1). Isi formulir https://visawebapp.boca.gov.tw/BOCA_MRVWeb/subroot/MRVWeb0_form.jsp print, isi lengkap, tanda tangan, dan lampirkan pasfoto 4X6 cm (berwarna dan background putih) 2 lembar. Jika ada dokumen yang lupa di fotokopi, bisa di fotokopi dan nge-print photo yang sesuai ukuran yg diminta TETO di lantai UG (maaf lupa, pokonya di lantai bawah).
2. Pasport (masih bisa berlaku minimal 12 bulan)
3. Letter of Acceptance (LOA) dari Univ di Taiwan (asli dan fotokopi)
4. Ijazah dan transkip nilai yang telah dilegalisir (asli dan fotokopi).
5. Hasil Medical Check Up di Rumah Sakit yang ditentukan dan dilegalisir (asli dan fotokopi).
6. Fotokopi Kartu Keluarga
7. Fotokopi Rekening Tabungan
8. Biaya Resident Rp 607.000


Untuk mengajukan visa, kita harus datang ke TETO Taiwan, yaitu di Lantai 12, Bank Arta Graha.
Alamat TETO:
Taipei Economic and Trade Office Jakarta, Indonesia (TETO) 
Address: Gedung Artha Graha, Lt. 12
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53 
Jakarta 12190, Indonesia
Biasanya, prosesnya 3 hari kerja. Jam kerja aplikasi visa: 08.30 - 11.30 dan untuk pengambilan visa 13.30 - 16.00. Begitu pertama kali datang, seperti biasa tinggalkan kartu ID di satpam, lalu naik ke lantai 12.

Source: http://www.roc-taiwan.org/ID/ct.asp?xItem=352484&ctNode=9324&mp=292

Baca Selengkapnya »

Vietnam Report 2014

Abstract  

Vietnam has seen rapid change since the authorities launched a political and economic renewal campaign (Doi Moi) that introduced reforms intended facilitate the transition from a centralized economy to a “socialist-oriented market economy”, which seemed to mimic China's earlier market-friendly moves. Utilizing the data and information from Internet -such as web, report, paper and youtube-, this report explores the outlook of economic performance in Vietnam (based on data from different sources; World Bank, IMF, Trading Economics, and UNCTAD Statistic) and in the second focus of this report (Vietnam as a Mimic China) provides short explanation of people’s argument (based on history, economic, and politic) and how Vietnam has learned from China and how it has not. This report also shows that the convergence of governance systems in Vietnam and China lies in principles and policy (the value system of reform) rather than in structures and polity. At the end, it can be said that it would be difficult for Vietnam to pursue Chinese model because it is a big country. Maybe Vietnam is not to become the next China, but still will continue to grow.

Vietnam Economic Performance

Economic Reformation through Doi Moi

After Vietnam was forcibly unified by the communist North Vietnamese in 1975, it spent a decade mired in disastrous economic experiments that brought it to the brink of famine. In 1986, communist authorities launched Doi Moi, political and economic renewal campaign.

The main reason Doi Moi Vietnam issued a policy in 1986 is due to the face of the failure of centralized economic development planning system and see the success of China in the process of economic reform. The purpose of the Doi Moi policy is to encourage development and economic growth by initiating a gradual transition from central planning to a market-based economy and the progressive integration with the world economy. Doi Moi reforms under this policy has gradually shifted the power of the public sector in the economy and foster investment and private initiative.

Only in recent years has the economy begun to gather steam, averaging 7.8% annual growth from 2001 to 2006. A young, well-educated population of enterprising workers and eager consumers is drawing the gaze of multinational corporations, long mesmerized by China's much larger market. Foreign direct investment exceeded $10 billion last year and is on pace to top $12 billion this year, thanks in part to Vietnam's joining the World Trade Organization in January 2007.

Gross Domestic Product

GDP is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period (usually on an annual basis). GDP is commonly used as an indicator of the economic health of a country, as well as to gauge a country's standard of living.

Composition of Vietnam’s GDP:

Vietnam's economy is predominantly manufacturing-based. Below is the composition of Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Product:

Figure 1

Composition of Vietnam GDP

1.      Agriculture accounts for 18.38% of GDP and employs 47.40% of the population.

The agriculture commodities are: coffee, coconuts, Brazil nuts, cashews, pepper, sugar cane, peanuts, bananas, poultry, fish, seafood, rubber, tea, and products rice.

For some agricultural products, Vietnam stands for the largest producer:

·                 Cashew nuts; one-third of global share

·                 Black pepper; one-third of global share

·                 Rice; second largest exporter in the world

·                 Coffee; secod largest exporter in the world

Vietnam has the highest proportion of land use for permanent crops of any nation in Greater Mekong Subregion. However, agriculture's share of Vietnam's GDP has fallen in recent decades, declining from 42% in 1989 to 20% in 2006, and 19% in 2013 as production in other sectors of the economy has risen.

2.     Manufacturing and industry accounts for 38.31% of GDP and employs 21.10% of the population.

The main industries in Vietnam are food processing, garments, shoes, machine-building, mining, coal, steel, cement, chemical fertilizer, glass, tires, oil, and mobile phones.

3.     The service sector accounts for 43.31% of the GDP and employs 31.50% of the population.

Vietnam GDP Growth Rate

Below is the figure of Vietnam’s GDP Annual Growth Rate, which is taken from trading economics.com.

Figure 2

Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate

Vietnam is one of the fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia. Especially because of in 2007 – the first year of the WTO era – Vietnam’s economy grew by 8.44 percent, which is the highest gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate since the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Then, Vietnam called as the liveliest “little tiger” in Asia.

As we can see in figure 2, the current gross domestic product of Vietnam, as of 2014, is 4,023,766 billion VND. The (GDP) in Vietnam expanded 6.19 percent in the third quarter of 2014 over the same quarter of the previous year. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Vietnam averaged 6.49 percent from 2000 until 2014, and a record low of 3.12 percent in the first quarter of 2009. As we can see from the graph, in 2009 the GDP growth has gone slumped  into 3.12 percent because of the world financial crisis. Vietnam GDP’s hang on exports and FDI.

Exports and Imports

Exports

The graph in figure 3 give us illustration of the exports trend in Vietnam averaged 4,253.01 USD Million from 1990 until 2014, reaching an all time high of 14,068 USD Million in October of 2014 and a record low of 537 USD Million in February of 1997. This low record happens because of the Asian Financial Crisis, which give great loss to Asian countries.

Figure 3

Exports of Vietnam

Figure 4 give us a brief detail about the major products that exported by Vietnam, which are: telephone, textile, foot-wears, computer, crude oil, fishery products, machine, wood, other means of transportation, and coffee.

United States of America is the highest receiver of Vietnam’s product- which accounts for 18.5 USD Billion-, China and Japan is the second and third highest receiver which account for 9.8 USD Billion, and Republic of Korea is the third highest.

Figure 4

Top 10 Major Exports of Vietnam from January to Sept 2014 as compared to the same period 2013

Figure 5

Top 10 Main Exporting Markets of Vietnam in the 8 months of 2014

Imports

The main major imports of Vietnam is machine, computer, fabrics, petroleum products, telepone, irons and steels, plastics, textile, animal fodders, and other base material. From January 1, 2014 until September 15, 2014, the total export of Vietnam is 100,655 Million USD. This total is less than the total exports in the same period.

Figure 6

Top 10 major imports of Vietnam from January to September 15th 2014 as compared to the same period 2013

China, which is located in the northern of Vietnam is the largest exporter for Vietnam. Vietnam import China’s product by 27.2 USD Billion in early 8 months of 2014, followed by Republic of Korea and Japan as the second and third biggest exporter for Vietnam, respectively.

Figure 7

Top 10 main importing markets of Vietnam in the 8 months of 2014

Foreign Direct Investment

Foreign direct investment are the net inflows of investment to acquire a lasting management interest. I have not got the Vietnam’s FDI data in 2014, but in 2013 some of people especially Standard Chartered's Betty Rui Wang predicted that

“FDI is likely to grow strongly in 2014, outpacing overall growth and resulting in a “two-speed” economy. International manufacturers and investors are attracted to Vietnam’s low-cost labor pool and large domestic market … [they] are showing sustained investment interest in the country, despite structural challenges to the economy.”

Figure 8

FDI of Vietnam

Figure 8 shows that the greatest Foreign Direct investment had a great increase in 2007 to 2009, and the biggest FDI was received in 2009 by almost 10,000 Million USD, thanks in part to Vietnam's joining the World Trade Organization in January 2007.

In 2013, among 50 nations and territories with new investment licenses in Vietnam; Korea was the biggest investor with over US$3.7 billion, making up 26.3% of the total, the second biggest is Singapore, China, Japan and then Russia. Manufacturing and processing proposals have received the greatest share of interest from foreign investors and represents 77 percent of contributed capital.

The October 2013 record showed great inflow of FDI due to the approval of two large projects - the first is a 1,200MW thermal power plant worth US$2 billion sponsored by the China Southern Power Grid Company and China Power International Holdings, which will share a 95% ownership stake in the project; and the second is a US$1.2 billion dollar integrated circuit project funded through FDI contributions from Samsung.  Samsung mobile phones will be manufacturing in Vietnam and it is estimated that Vietnam will account for 40% of Samsung's mobile phone production by 2015.

Balance of Payments

The country’s balance of payment records a high surplus, due to massive influx of overseas remittance, foreign investment and foreign aid despite a record amount of imports.

Figure 9

Balance of Payments

In 2008, the balance of payments of Vietnam has a great loss (the current account shows a deficit of up to 12% of GDP)because the global economic crisis in 2008 and 2009 hit Vietnam hard. To cover the shortfall on the current account, Vietnam mainly relies on foreign direct investment inflows (FDI).

However, we can see from Figure 9 that; as the trade balance improved, the current account showed surpluses in 2011 and 2012 because of weak domestic activity on the back of the government’s efforts to rein in credit growth and a devaluation of the dong reduced import growth in those year.

Inflation

Inflation is one of the major challenges to Vietnam’s economy. It is also the reason for slow growth of the state of the economy of Vietnam. Inflation is understood as the uncontrolled increase in price. It means the devaluation of Vietnam currency. As we can see in Figure 10 that the highest inflaton occured in 2008 and 2011 (with the inflation number more than twenty and almost twenty, respectively).

Figure 10

Inflation in Vietnam

In 2008, Vietnam has very high inflation rate because of the global economic crisis which hit Vietnam hard. On the other hand, the inflation in 2011 was an impact of pro-growth policies following the global economic downturn and unpredictable attempts to prevent the economy from overheating. This event cause the confidence in Vietnam’s economy plummeted, leading to a drop in FDI inflows and capital flight, the government was forced to change tactics.

Early 2011, the policy focus shifted towards stabilizing the economy. Monetary policies were tightened through a number of interest rate hikes, and, as monetary policies are not very effective in Vietnam, credit controls were introduced to further lower credit growth. Between March and May 2011, the discount rate was raised by a total of 600bps to 13% and the re-financing rate was raised by 600bps to 15% between February and November 2011. As a result, inflation decreased and on the fiscal front, government spending growth was reduced. The policy shift has paid off, as the most acute balance of payment problems have eased, as has inflation, and economic confidence has been slowly returning.

Exchange Rates

Below is the figure of Vietnam exchange rates, from 1996 to 2014. The exchange rates in December 19, 2014 is 21,444.5 VND for 1 USD.

Figure 11

Exchange Rates

On average, the dong has lost nearly 30% of its value since early 2008. This was occured because the dong has been devalued multiple times in the past years in order to cope with pressures resulting from capital flight, largely due to locals exchanging their dong (VND) for USD.

From the Figure 11, we also can see that between 2008 and 2011, Vietnam managed their currency; (Dong) was devalued in excess of 20%, but its value remained relatively stable in 2013. 

Unemployment Rate

International Labor Organization (ILO) says that Vietnam is still among the countries with the lowest unemployment rates across the globe.

Figure 12

Unemployment Rate

However, Vietnam’s wage levels are a lot lower than elsewhere in Asia. According to a JETRO report, monthly pay for general workers in Vietnam is roughly 32 percent of levels in China, 43 percent in Malaysia and Thailand and 62 percent in Indonesia.

Corruption

Corruption remains a major problem in Vietnam, as indicated by the country’s poor ranking on Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index 2014 (119 out of 176) with score 31. Actually, corruption is a problem for all countries. A poor score is likely a sign of widespread bribery, lack of punishment for corruption and public institutions that don’t respond to citizens’ needs.

Solving corruption problem is very important, as many Vietnamese have not been able to profit evenly from the country’s strong growth and income inequality has been rising. If not addressed, this could prove a source of dissatisfaction with the government.

Furthermore, foreign investors has complained that the Vietnam communist bureaucracy remains opaque and, at times, corrupt. More reforms need to be done on all dimensions of investor protection, so investors can be more confident to invest their money in Vietnam.

Figure 13

Vietnam’s Corruption Rank Score based on CPI 2014

Vietnam ~ A Mimic China

China’s Importance for Vietnam and it’s relevance for Vietnam’s economic development         

Note: Base years are 1990 for Vietnam (Doi Moi), 1977 for China (modern economic reform).

Figure 14

The Comparison of long-term growth accelerations between Vietnam and China

Vietnam runs a very similar economic model to its large northern neighbor, China. Figure 1 shows that growth accelerations in both China and Vietnam started at roughly the same per-capita income level, and by 2013 Vietnam had kept pace with China also 23 years into its growth acceleration. 

In contrast, although Vietnam’s foreign trade hit new heights, with exports rising to US$48.3 billion and imports to US$60.8 billion in 2007, the country’s exports grew by only 21 percent, a rate much lower than China’s 35 percent in its first year after entering the WTO and even lower than Vietnam’s own 26 percent in 2006 (Le Dang Doanh, quoted in Quang Thuan 2007). Moreover, while China has consistently enjoyed export surpluses, Vietnam’s trade deficit has persisted for decades. Also in contrast with the early phase of economic growth in China, Vietnam continues to be haunted by the high inflation rate which stood at 12.6 percent in 2007 (the highest level of inflation since 1996). These contrasts suggest that Vietnam is unlikely to go down the Chinese path, which is characterized by a long lasting process of high-speed economic expansion.

Moreover, in Vietnam, official corruption is endemic. Vietnam also lags behind China in terms of property rights, the efficient regulation of markets, and labor and financial market reforms. Furthermore, state-owned banks that are poorly managed and suffer from non-performing loans still dominate the financial sector.

From a Chinese point of view, there is a little doubt that Vietnam benefits from close relationship with China and particularly the lessons learnt from the latter’s experiences. Zhai Kun (Director- Southeast Asian Studies, CICIR) said that:

 “Vietnam will surely further enhance its good neighbor relations with China. The two countries have an inseparable geopolitical bond and China’s development brings opportunities to Vietnam. If China s reform and opening efforts can be described as  ‘crossing the river by feeling the stones’- in the words of Deng Xiaoping, Vietnam’s opening to the world should be seen as benefiting from China’s experience, which has dramatically reduced the cost of repeating mistakes. Vietnam has long been a country looking for its own place around major powers. The post-Cold War reality has shown that a diplomacy dealing with the major powers gives Vietnam more leverage for self-decision and paves the way for economic development”  (2007)

·       At critical junctures of its economic reform program, particularly during the mini-crisis at the turn of the century, Vietnamese leaders have indeed looked for Chinese advice and guidance. In June 2000, 16 of Vietnam's senior-most officials assembled in China for an unpublicized lesson on how to reform a socialist economy without losing party control.

·       With regard to the impressive FDI inflows, it seems that Vietnam has benefited less from its learning of the Chinese model than from its being next to China.

·       “China-plus-one” strategy and went to Vietnam to diversify their manufacturing base. Many foreign investors followed a “China-plus-one” strategy and went to Vietnam to diversify their manufacturing base. An example is Taiwan’s Foxconn (Hon Hai) Group, the world’s leading maker of outsourced electronics components and one of the largest foreign investors in China, which unveiled a plan to allocate up to US$ 5 billion into two projects in Vietnam.

·       Related, Vietnam will likely complement China by making small runs of high value-added items.

“A 10 container order is nothing in China, but welcome in Vietnam. Sophisticated investors do not want all their eggs in China’s basket: believers in the ‘China plus one’ theory are increasingly coming to the conclusion that the ‘one’ is Vietnam” (Barnes 2007, 12).

·       Industrial growth in Vietnam is being fuelled by some China’s fast expanding industries which regard the neighbor as a near-shore production base for lowcost supplies to the Chinese market or exports to third countries that avoid the protective tariffs placed against China (notably in textiles).

How Vietnam has learned from China and how it has not

·         Vietnam’s learning from China is more a “path imitation” than “model imitation”.

·         Futhermore, Vietnam and China give economic reform priority over political reform. Vietnamese leaders have adopted a value system of reform that bears striking similarities with that of China. Both states give economic reform priority over political reform. Vietnamese integrationists share with China the view that the major world trend is “peace and development” and the central path of reform is “opening and integration” to the outside world. Vietnamese anti-imperialists share with China the view that the major threat is the Western strategy of “peaceful evolution.”

·         Vietnam imitates China’s policy rather than China’s polity.

·         Vietnam has upheld its troika structure which is characterized by 3 different persons holding the posts of the party chief, the state president, and the government chief while in china, the party chief also assumes the position of the head of state.

While China has been a role model for Vietnam economically and the latter has generally followed the formers lead politically, however, Vietnam has been more experimental and progressive than the more economically advanced neighbor.

·         China remains advanced in economic reform and marketization while Vietnam has surged ahead in political reform. The easy example is Vietnamese Central Committee meets considerably more often than its Chinese counterpart.

·         The party report in Vietnam was released two months before the congress began, and feedback from the public and the media was inivited.

In China, the party report is released only during the CCP congress. In China, legislators' committees can query government officials, but behind closed doors.

·         Vietnam also holds more direct and competitive elections of national legislators (exceed by 30 %) which the number of nominated candidates can exceed the number of seats by 30 per cent or more. Candidates meet constituents and state their platforms during campaigning. In China, national-level legislators are elected indirectly by provincial legislators, who also select the candidates.

Conclusion

•       Similarities of governance structures in Vietnam and China are primarily the result of analogy or the fact that both regimes have faced comparable challenges first with regard to their respective national revolutionary struggles and later the establishment and institutional fostering of communist rule.

•       The prominent example is economic reform processes toward market systems and the integration in global economic structures without touching the main pillars of the respective political orders.

•       The convergence of governance systems in Vietnam and China lies in principles and policy (the value system of reform) rather than in structures and polity.

•       It would be difficult for Vietnam to pursue Chinese model because it is a big country. Maybe Vietnam is not to become the next China, but it will still continue to grow.

Referrence

China Statistical Data https://www.quandl.com/c/china

China: GDP growth (annual %) https://www.quandl.com/WORLDBANK/CHN_NY_GDP_MKTP_KD_ZG-China-GDP-growth-annual

Country Report Vietnam https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2013/february/country-report-vietnam/

Developments and trends of Vietnam international merchandise trade in June and the first half of 2013 http://www.customs.gov.vn/Lists/EnglishNews/ViewDetails.aspx?language=en-US&ID=195

Doi Moi https://viet-nam.wikispaces.com/Doi+Moi

Foreign Direct Investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$) http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD

Kebijakan Investasi Langsung di Vietnam dan Thailand: Pelajaran Apa bagi Indonesia http://www.online.fe.trisakti.ac.id/pusatstudi_industri/pusat%20study%20tulus%20tambunan/pusat%20studi/policy%20discussion%20paper/pdf6.pdf

Learn More about Tradei in Vietnam http://atlas.media.mit.edu/profile/country/vnm/

Perbandingan Demokratisasi Vietnam dan China (Efek Doi-Moi Vietnam 1987 dan Reformasi Ekonomi China 1978) http://ejournal.umm.ac.id/index.php/jshi/article/viewFile/1125/1218

Something Happened in Vietnam http://ekonomi.kompasiana.com/bisnis/2014/09/22/something-happened-in-vietnam-675725.html

The Impact of China on Governance Structures in Vietnam (Jörn Dosch and Alexander L. Vuving)

The Relationship between Inflation and Unemployment in Vietnam http://www.ukessays.com/essays/economics/the-relationship-between-inflation-and-unemployment-in-vietnam-economics-essay.php

UNCTAD Statistics http://unctad.org/en/Pages/Statistics.aspx

Vietnam living its own Asian success story http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=3949667&page=1

Vietnam Economic Indicators http://www.tradingeconomics.com/vietnam

Vietnam Economy Profile 2014 http://www.indexmundi.com/vietnam/economy_profile.html

Vietnam Economic Outlook 2014: Exports, FDI To Support Growth http://www.ibtimes.com/vietnam-economic-outlook-2014-exports-fdi-support-growth-1525182

Vietnam Statistical Data https://www.quandl.com/c/vietnam

Vietnam Update http://www.business-in-asia.com/vietnam/vietnam_update_2014.html

Vietnam’s long-term growth performance: A comparative perspective http://blogs.worldbank.org/eastasiapacific/vietnam-s-long-term-growth-performance-comparative-perspective

http://www.investopedia.com/

Vietnam Economy - The Growth is Now Faltering https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtHMKNB16tQ

Can't see the figures? Download the file on https://www.scribd.com/doc/267078544/Vietnam-Reports-in-2014

Baca Selengkapnya »